Pakistan future energy plans

ISLAMABAD: Amid criticism from provinces for allegedly ignoring their projects in a long-term power generation plan, the federal on Wednesday insisted the longer-term energy plan would be supported sustainability and affordability rather than any inter-provincial quid pro quo.

This was the crux of a day-long public hearing organized by National electrical power regulatory agency (Nepra) on Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2020-47 (IGCEP), presided over by Chairman Tauseef H Farooqui.

The CEP is finalized by the National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) with the support of international lending agencies and consultants through a software PLEXOS.

The provincial governments, including Azad Kashmir, expressed serious concerns that priority projects of their interests had not been incorporated within the plan. “IGCEP shouldn't be seen within the context of projects,” said Secretary Power Omer Rasul, adding that each province and stakeholder had competing interests and a few principles would need to be settled rather than any quid pro quo.

The plan takes under consideration 25 percent load shedding and 25pc imported fuel (RFO, imported coal, and RLNG) and 75pc indigenous resources (renewables like hydro, nuclear and cross the border — CASA).

The system installed capacity in 2030 will increase to 105,926MW, from 76,391MW in 2025 (base case on normal demand scenario of GDP 5.5pc). thanks to this rise, many hydropower and variable energy projects removed of the model. ARE Policy 2019 (20pc renewable energy capacity by 2025 and 30pc by 2030) had been considered alongside existing contractual obligations. Retirement of power plants as per power purchase agreements terms and export to K-Electric at 650MW till 2022 and 1,150MW onwards had also been factored in.

KP Chief Minister Mehmood Khan complained that he wasn't satisfied with the IGCEP 2047 as many hydel projects recommended by his government haven't been given any consideration.

Sindh Energy Minister Imtiaz Shaikh said that NTDC didn't take his government into confidence while appreciating Nepra for inviting the province on the plan. He was of the view that out of 78 projects of 11,000MW electricity proposed by the Sindh government, only 21 were included within the IGCEP and even threatened to require the difficulty up at the Council of Common Interests.

Nepra Chairman, however, reminded Shaikh that the regulator’s team made hectic efforts to urge recommendations from the Sindh government, but nobody was able to share any information.

Punjab Power Development Board (PPDB) director Mr. Salman also raised objections on the IGCEP saying that several projects and proposals of his province, including commercial operations of Taunsa, had not been incorporated within the plan accurately.

Ishfaq Ahmed, Director Energy Balochistan, commented that renewable projects which were sent by his government are ignored. The representative of AJ&K, Naveed Gilani, said mature projects of the territory must be included within the IGCEP.

NTDC team explained it operated under timelines and used modern generation planning software PLEXOS to seek out future demand by using different methods. All costs are updated and indexed as of December 2019 and projects which the executing agencies confirmed to possess signed contracts and for a way long were taken into consideration.

They said projects not confirmed by executing agencies and provinces within those timelines had to be dropped. for instance, Diamer-Bhasha dam contract was signed this might and didn't become a part of the plan but obviously are going to be considered on next annual revision in April.

Deescalation in the cost of wind and solar energy projects has been considered. Fuel prices have also been indexed within the IGCEP. consistent with the plan, all committed projects are included in it ie strategic (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), under construction, achieved financial close, and government-to-government.

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